NICCR Funded Projects

Currently Funded Projects:

• Colorado State University, Investigation of Hygroscopicity and Cloud-and-Ice Nucleating Activities of Combustion Aerosols (DeMott).
  Paul DeMott from Colorado State University is using laboratory studies and modeling to determine how manmade and natural particles generated from energy production affect the transfer of solar and thermal energy. The transfer of these energy types alters the properties of clouds thereby affecting the Earth’s climate. The results of this study will enable more accurate forecasts of future climate.
• Colorado State University, Carbon, water and land-use in Conservation Reserve Program lands of the shortgrass prairie (Hanan).
  Niall P. Hanan has been investigating how land management options in the Central Great Plains affect ecosystems function, carbon, water and energy exchange dynamics. His research suggests that moderate grazing by cattle has relatively subtle effects on both carbon and water dynamics in these grasslands in the short term, but there is evidence that differences between grazed and ungrazed systems are accentuated in dry years during which grazing reduces growth and carbon uptake in the water-stressed grassland.
• Colorado State University, Laboratory measurements of aerosol scattering and extinction properties (Kreidenweis).
  Sonia Kreidenweis from Colorado State University is studying carbon-dominated aerosols, which can absorb visible and ultraviolet light. Kreidenweis will use the results of this study to improve models of aerosol scattering and absorption. The improved models will enable climate modelers to make more accurate climate change predictions.
• Idaho State University, University of Washington, University of Arizona, Climatic and biotic co-limitation of conifer establishment at treelines: addressing uncertainty in bio-climatic model forecasts of forest change (Germino, Graumlich and Mantua).
  Matthew Germino from Idaho State University, Lisa Graumlich from the University of Arizona, and Nathan Mantua from the University of Washington are using a combination of tree-ring analysis and seedling establishment experiments to examine the role of climatic variability in tree establishment at upper and lower tree line. Germino, Graumlich, and Mantua will use this study to refine a model for predicting tree species response to climatic and biotic influences.
• Northern Arizona University, University of California, Irvine, Climate Impacts of Land Cover Change in the Western U.S. (Hungate and Randerson).
  Bruce Hungate from Northern Arizona University is using a climate model to examine feedbacks related to climate-induced vegetation range shifts, afforestation projects, and wildland and prescribed fire. Hungate will simulate changes in land cover to examine regional changes in surface air temperature.
• Northern Arizona University, Regional Dynamic Vegetation Model for the Colorado Plateau: A Species-Specific Approach (Cobb).
  Neil Cobb from Northern Arizona University is using a landscape process model to predict species specific responses to climate change from the low deserts of the Grand Canyon along an elevational gradient to the alpine tundra of the San Francisco Peaks in northern Arizona. The outputs from this model will be used to make landscape level predictions about how disturbance events, such as fire, and other processes will effect the distribution of 26 species.
• Northern Arizona University, Does climate-change assoicated drought preidspose trees to insect attack? (Kolb).
  Tom Kolb and his research staff are conducting a manipulative drought experiment designed to provide the strongest test to date of the role of climate-change-associated drought in susceptibility of mature pinyon pines to lethal insect attacks. An associated observational study will enhance understanding of tree mortality mechanisms by extending the manipulation results to sites of natural mortality during drought.
• Oregon State University, Factors influencing the distribution of a foliar fungal pathogen and its effect on carbon dioxide flux in multiple-aged Douglas-fir forests (Stone).
  Jeff Stone and his research group have been studying the effects of a native foliar fungal pathogen of Douglas-fir trees on CO2 sequestration in coniferous forest canopies. They are examining how host, pathogen, and climatic factors affect the distribution of the pathogen to better estimate future disease levels in response to climate change. This research is unique in documenting the role of a canopy microbe and pathogen on regional forest canopy CO2 dynamics.
• Purdue University, Exploration of the mechanistic relationship between improved regional North American inverse carbon fluxes and climate variability/trends (Gurney).
  Kevin Gurney is using data on the exchange of carbon between the atmosphere and biosphere for the United States to provide insight into how variability in climatic patterns influences the exchange. Gurney seeks to determine if changes in climate, such as el Niño, influence the exchange of carbon between the land and the atmosphere.
• San Diego State University, Controls on Carbon and Methane flux Across a Complex Coastal Arctic Landscape (Oechel).
  Walter Oechel from San Diego State University is studying the patterns of carbon dioxide and methane flux that result from changes in vegetation, soil moisture, thaw depth of the permafrost layer, and water table depth near Barrow Alaska.
• University of Arizona, Determining vegetation responses to global-change-type drought extremes: will warming amplify tree die-off? (Breshears)
  David Breshears is using a field experiment to develop a predictive framework for determining the effects of climate change on piñon-juniper woodlands in the western U.S. This study will assess the relationship between piñon pine mortality and extreme drought events to determine how mortality of this co-dominant tree species impacts ecosystem structure and function.
  
• University of California at Berkeley, Carbon exchange in a Ponderosa Pine Plantation: Strategies of Water Use, Seasonality of Plant Physiology, and the Impact of Aerosols on Photosynthesis (Goldstein).
  Dr. Goldstein developed a database on expand the study of components of ecosystem carbon cycling and the processes controlling them. This study provided a unique and critical contribution to NICCR and DOE research goals to understand ecosystem exchange of carbon, ecological effects of environmental change, and to engage in the development and testing of models needed for integrated assessments.
  
• University of California, San Diego, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Organic Aerosol Effects on Radiative Forcing of Climate (Russell).
  Lynn Russell from Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California, San Diego is using laboratory and modeling experiments to determine how different organic compounds influence aerosol particle properties. Russell’s goal is to use this research to determine the role of these particles in absorbing radiation in the atmosphere.
• University of California, Santa Cruz, Climate Change Impacts on Shrub-Forest Ecotones in the Western US (Loik).
  Michael Loik from the University of California, Santa Cruz is studying the linkages between snow depth/melt timing, recruitment of dominant species, and species composition. Loik and his collaborators will use snow fences in the eastern Sierra Nevada Mountains to test snow climate and develop a recruitment model from the field results.
• University of Colorado, Boulder, The Response of a Subalpine Forest Ecosystem to Earlier Spring Warm-up (Monson).
  Russell Monson from the University of Colorado, Boulder is conducting a study to examine the response of a Rocky Mountain sub-alpine forest to earlier spring warm-up. By removing snow from the treatment area, he will expand his earlier work that found that earlier snow melt reduces the amount of carbon uptake in trees. These data will be used to parameterize a model that will enable researchers to examine tree carbon uptake under various climate change scenarios.
• University of Colorado at Boulder, The Role of Boreal and Arctic Soils in Climate Feedbacks; Model Development and Testing (Neff).
  Jason Neff from the University of Colorado, Boulder is developing a model to examine the role of boreal and arctic soils in climate feedbacks. Neff will use this model to generate predictions about soil decomposition and carbon release under changing climatic conditions.
• University of Florida, The Effect of Moisture and Temperature Manipulation on Plant Allocation and Soil Carbon Dynamics in Black Spruce Forests: Using Radiocarbon to Detect Multiple Climate Change Impacts on Boreal Ecosystem Carbon Cycling (Schuur).
  Edward Schuur from the University of Florida is manipulating temperature and moisture to determine how the carbon pool of the black spruce boreal forest will be affected by climate change. Schuur and his collaborators will use the findings of their study with a boreal forest model to explore future changes in precipitation and temperature.
• University of Idaho, Climate change, insect outbreaks, and carbon fluxes: using an earth system model to study interations in the western United States (Hicke).
  Jeff Hicke's study attemps to quantify the role of insect outbreaks in forest carbon budgets of the western United States and to improve the understanding of how future climate change will affect insect disturbances and carbon cycling. Although climate change has influenced insect outbreaks that have affected millions of ha of forests in North America in recent decades, (which in turn will influence future climate change through altered carbon cycling), studies have not included these disturbances in regional estimates of carbon budgets and climate change.
• University of Nevada, Las Vegas, The effects of global change and disturbance on the health and regeneration of the Mojave Desert biological soil crust (Stark).
  Lloyd Stark’s research studies how the Mojave Desert biological soil crust responds to projected climate change that includes increased levels of summer precipitation, nitrogen deposition, and CO2. His team measured changes in field cover, pigments, sugar and protein levels, regeneration, and responses to disturbance and desiccation by either making direct field measurements or controlled lab experiments.
• University of New Mexico, Ecosystem Consequences of Precipitation Variability and extremes in Semi-Arid grassland ad Shrubland. (Pockman).
  William Pockman seeks to understand changes in ecosystem structure and function of semiarid grassland and shrubland caused by a) extended periods of severe drought or above-normal precipitation and b) precipitation variability. These forcings alter the pulses of soil moisture that drive biotic activity, such as primary productivity, community composition and ecosystem function. Using existing infrastructure, this work assesses the long-term consequences of disparate precipitation forcings.
• University of Washington, The heat is on: forecasting range shifts of Pacific Northwest conifers with climate change (HilleRis Lambers).
  Janneke HilleRis Lambers is investigating the way global warming may alter species' distributions. Using a combination of demography, dispersal and climate data, he hopes to answer three scientific questions for four dominant conifers (Western Hemlock, Western Red Cedar, Pacific Silver Fir, Alaska Cedar):  1) Which climatic factors and competitive interactions constrain tree growth and survival?  2) Given these constraints, how fast can focal species migrate with climate change?  3) Will range expansions of focal species keep up with rapid warming predicted for the region?
• University of Wisconsin-Madison, Ecosystem response to future climate change and the impact of vegetation feedbacks in the Southwest United States (Notaro).
  Michael Notaro from the University of Wisconsin, Madison is examining southwestern U.S. ecosystem response to predicted changes in climate. Notaro with his collaborators is using observational data and model experiments to identify the response of vegetation to altered precipitation levels, increasing carbon dioxide, and drought.
• University of Wyoming, Synthesis of existing datasets to explore the implications of altered precipitation for carbon and water dynamics in desert ecosystems of the southwestern US (Ogle).
  Kiona Ogle from the University of Wyoming is synthesizing results from previous studies to examine the implications for fluctuations in precipitation on carbon and water dynamics in the desert systems of the southwestern United States. Ogle, along with her collaborators, will use existing information to determine which ecological components are most affected by changes in precipitation patterns. This information will also be used to guide future research.
• University of Wyoming, Direct and indirect effects of warming, elevated CO2 and non-native plant invasion on carbon and water cycling in semiarid grassland (Williams).
  David Williams and Elise Pendall from the University of Wyoming are using a heating and carbon dioxide enrichment experiment to determine how these forecasted changes will influence non-native plant invasion, and the carbon and water cycles of a grassland near Cheyenne, Wyoming.
• Wayne State University, Carbon storage responses of subalpine forests to mountain pine beetle outbreaks under current and altered climate regimes in western North America (Kashian).
  Daniel Kashian is working at Yellowstone National Park studying how outbreaks of the mountain pine beetle affect forest carbon storage at stand and landscape scales under multiple climate scenarios. He asks the following questions: How does carbon storage vary with forest stand development following a beetle outbreak? How do beetle outbreak extent, frequency, and post-outbreak stand development patterns interact to influence carbon storage at landscape scales? What is the potential for climate change over the next 50-100 years to strengthen the feedback between beetle outbreaks and climate?